Things continue to look constructive for end-user demand, which we expect to reach 15.6 million b/d over peak season in August (+600,000 b/d vs May).
With an estimated loss of some 750,000 b/d of refining capacity since the start of the pandemic only higher utilisation at remaining capacity can narrow the remaining gap through Q3.
This is still likely to see sustained support for refining margins through Q3 and into Q4 as the domestic clean products balance tightens and requires utilisation to even top 2019 levels from September onwards.
Research Highlights - Week 22
Crude throughput in the US continues to trail 2019 levels by a considerable margin, remaining short vs this metric by some 1.5 million b/d in this week’s EIA data release. Considering lost capacity due to the pandemic we do not see it closing this remaining gap in H2, even with higher run rates (see Americas Weekly - Issue 21).