15 Jul 2020 Featured in: Americas Weekly - Issue 28

Research Highlights - Week 29

The need to offload excess product has seen the US net-exporting gasoline at the height of the summer driving season (see Americas Weekly – Issue 28)

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  • Gasoline stocks fell in the US for the second consecutive week in the week ending 10 July , with the cumulative draw over this period totalling around 8 million barrels (EIA), with the major draws happening in PADD-1 and PADD-3.

  • Although implied demand estimates suggest consumption has stagnated in recent weeks, stockdraws have been helped along by a return to net-exporting, a seasonal role reversal, given that the US typically net imports sizeable volumes during the summer driving season.

  • Looking forward, we are currently somewhat more bearish on the recovery of US oil demand relative to even a month ago, with our current base case seeing y-o-y declines in gasoline demand strengthening over July, which may see country needing to offload additional surplus volumes in the coming weeks .