6 Nov 2020 Featured in: Top of the Barrel - Issue 11

Research Highlights - Week 45

Even a brief shift away from gasoline production in the US could see middle distillate inventories returning to 2019 levels at best in late December (see Top of the Barrel – Issue 11)

  • Global mogas/diesel spreads have been weakening since late September, falling down to levels last seen in August.

  • Whilst the outlook for gasoline markets is still largely favourable vs middle distillates, stagnating mogas stocks in the US amid a few weeks of sudden, strong draws on distillate inventories have weighed on Atlantic Basin gasoline assessments in recent weeks.

  • A shift in production away from gasoline, however short-lived, is likely to help keep the market comparably tight, however, and we would not see distillate inventories – assuming draws continue at the current rate – realigning fully with year-ago levels until late December/early 2021.