Our Refining Views report series provides a comprehensive understanding of the global refining industry and petroleum product markets. At the centre of our analysis is an industry-leading, state-of-the-art propriety refining model that allows our analysts to properly differentiate between regions, refining setups, and relevant crude oil baskets.
In this weekly report, we analyse the underlying complexities of the global refining market, presenting product-by-product updates for key regions: East of Suez, Americas, and the wider European region including the Former Soviet Union and Africa.
- Analysis of weekly movements in petroleum product crack spreads including a short-term outlook, informed by arbitrage calculations, refinery maintenance updates and secondary processing unit margins.
- Weekly updates to benchmark refining margins for each region using our proprietary in-house refining model.
The relative lengthening of the East of Suez core products balance to pressure product prices vs West of Suez
Downside risks remain especially firm for air travel, with little space for upside surprises
The impact of OPEC+ cuts on refining margins
Export-oriented refiners continue to feel the brunt of the pressure from the apparent capacity overhang
Refining Outlook is an extensive quarterly publication that offers clients an excellent synopsis of the latest and projected developments on global petroleum products and refining markets in two parts.
- Part one investigates the general market conditions concentrating on the economy, supply and demand, inventories, freight, regulatory changes, and emissions.
- Part two presents a detailed petroleum product-by-product outlook for the next quarter including outlooks for refinery maintenance and upcoming expansions.
- Also includes data compilations of our balance figures, refinery maintenance and refining capacity additions.
This year started on a sour note, but optimism picks up
After the challenging 2020 2021 offers some relief for the global refining system, but too much optimism is premature at this stage.
With jet fuel demand still far below last year's levels, refiners face strong pressure to reduce distillate supply. Margins continue to suffer, bringing with them increasing consolidative pressure.
The market's new normal remains a rather precarious state, with overcapacity on the crude and product supply side its defining features.