Our Refining Views report series provides a comprehensive understanding of the global refining industry and markets. At the centre of our analysis is an industry leading, state-of-the-art propriety refining model that allows our analysts to properly differentiate between regions, refining setups, and relevant crude oil baskets.
In this weekly report, we analyse the underlying complexities of the global refining market, presenting product-by-product updates for key regions: East of Suez, Americas, and the wider European region including the Former Soviet Union and Africa.
- Analysis of weekly movements in petroleum product crack spreads including a short-term outlook, informed by arbitrage calculations, refinery maintenance updates and secondary processing unit margins.
- Weekly updates to benchmark refining margins for each region using our proprietary in-house refining model.
The US refining margin has been under pressure recently, but its underlying fundamental advantages should return before long.
Weakening demand and a middle distillate overhang are hampering our crude intake outlook.
High-sulphur residue conversion has been attracting attention again, but weak simple margins are set to curtail availability from Russia.
Demand recovery falters, with diesel in the firing line over winter
Refining Outlook is an extensive quarterly publication that offers clients an excellent synopsis of the latest and projected developments on global petroleum products and refining markets in two parts.
- Part one investigates the general market conditions concentrating on the economy, supply and demand, inventories, freight, regulatory changes, and emissions.
- Part two presents a detailed petroleum product-by-product outlook for the next quarter including outlooks for refinery maintenance and upcoming expansions.
- Also includes data compilations of our balance figures, refinery maintenance and refining capacity additions.
The market's new normal remains a rather precarious state, with overcapacity on the crude and product supply side its defining features.
-Quartus horribilis ahead -Impacts of Coronavirus on demand, supply, balances, and stocks
-Weak margin environment is a nightmare before Christmas -2020 refining to feel systemic pressure of overcapacity -Asia to bear brunt of consolidation
-West-to-East arb is broken -HSFO backwardation inflates spot margins -Demand slump trumps supply shock -VLSFO rapidly gains market acceptance